Scenario engine · rules v1
United States: future paths
Three bracketed trajectories from current structure, power trend, risk/opportunity, and recent event skew. Run npm run evolve or node scripts/generateScenarios.js to refresh the narrative cache layer.
Rule-based scenarios
Source: rules_v1
Bullish
Reform & upside path
- Power trend stable with opportunity 90 and future_potential 84
- Recent shock balance skews constructive.
Overall and power drift up if governance holds: innovation and openness outperform, risk bleeds down slowly.
Dimensions: structural read — not a forecast guarantee.
Neutral
Drift / muddle-through
- Risk 41 sits mid-band; power trend stable
- No single vector dominates — outcomes path-dependent on external shocks.
Scores oscillate inside a band; power_score moves slowly unless a large event hits trade or institutions.
Dimensions: structural read — not a forecast guarantee.
Bearish
Conflict / stagnation pressure
- Risk not extreme but fragility latent.
- If external conflict or sanctions intensify, downside opens fast.
Risk and social_order absorb hits first; openness and innovation stall; power_score compresses if economy cracks.
Dimensions: structural read — not a forecast guarantee.